Analyzing the draw at the Paris Masters

The draw at the Paris Masters  is out and has ramifications for the field at World Tour Finals as well as the year end no. 1 fight between Nadal and Djokovic.

The draw has not been kind on home grown players Tsonga and Gasquet who are currently in the race for a spot in the World Tour Finals at London. They have been scheduled to meet in the 3^rd round at Paris, implying one of them would most likely miss out on a London ticket. It also increases Federer’s chances of qualifying, should he win at Basel this week.

The draw for Nadal has increased his chances of confirming the year end no.1 ranking. In his quarter are Tsonga and Gasquet against whom he should sail through based on his past record against them and his current form. He could meet Ferrer or Raonic in the semis and again these players would not pose much trouble for him. 

Djokovic on the other hand has a tough draw. He is drawn to meet the big servig American Isner in the 3^rd round, followed by Warinka in the quarters and Del Potro/Federer in the semis. These all players have had some degree of success against him in the last 2-3 years and have troubled and beat him on occasions.

All this suggests that by this tournament end, Nadal might confirm the year end no. 1 ranking, while Federer would make another trip to London for the World Tour finals.

Rafa Nadal’s 3rd reign at No.1 would be a long one

Rafa Nadal has regained the no.1 ranking after reaching the finals of Beijing Open. Several factors indicate this would be a long reign at no.1. 

Rafa’s currently has a healthy lead of about 2700 points over Djokovic in the year to date ATP rankings. Rafa has 0 points to defend till the Australian Open next year. In the same period, Djokovic defends around 4500 ATP points. This should give Rafa a healthy lead over Novak by beginning next year.

Also, Rafa’s  form at hard courts has been almost impeccable this year (27-1), and he is playing the most aggressive hard court tennis of his career. He has played much closer to the baseline and dominated and bulldozed opponents with his rocket forehand. He has victories over Federer and Djokovic in fast hard courts of Cincinati and the U S Open respectively. 

All these point towards a good season end performance by Rafa in the remaining 2 Masters at Shanghai and Paris, and at the World Tour Finals in London. 

Also, Rafa’s clay court dominance over the years would help him defend the points won over the clay season in 2014. Also, he has no points to defend at Wimbledon. All this would mean Rafa would hang on to the no. 1 raking at least till August next year. Then the biggest challenges would start for Rafa when he would have to defend big points over the US Open 2014 series.

It would thus be safe to say that tennis world would see Rafa at the top for a long period now, with Djokovic and others playing catch up for much of the coming 12 months.

Analysing the draw at the Beijing Open

The draw for the Beijiing Open is out. Amongst the top players, Nadal seems to have got an easier draw compared to Djokovic. 

Nadal opens his campaign against a qualifier, followed by a possible 3^rd round meeting against Kohlsreiber. His potentital quarter final opponent could be Haas or Hewitt. None of these players pose a real threat to Rafa.  Nadal’s first true test would come in the semis when he may face Berdych or Isner.

Djokovic meanwhile has a slightly trickier draw with Wawrinka in his quarter of the draw. He opens his campaign against Lukas Rosol, Nadal’s conqueror at Wimbledon 2012, and could face Verdasco in the 3^rd round. A tough quarterfinal test could present before Djokovic in form of Wawrinka, who has stretched him to limits twice this year in the Australian Open and the US Open, losing both matches in 5 sets.

All in all, this draw favors Rafa more and has increased his chances to reach the finals at the Beijing Open and regain the no. 1 ranking.

Rafa Nadal would regain no. 1 ranking at the Beijing Open

Rafa Nadal has embarked on his journey to reclaim his no.1 ranking. The Beijing Open, starting 30^th September, provides him an opportunity to get back to no.1 .

Rafa only needs to reach the final of Beijing Open to get back to no. 1 in the ATP rankings. Considering his form on hard courts this year (22-0), it’s not wise to bet against him doing so.

Also with Andy Murray out with injury, the only serious threat to Rafa would be Djokovic, who won’t meet him before the finals. So, Rafa reaching the finals and dethroning Djokovic is a big possibility.

This would be his 3^rd reign at no. 1 and considering his current lead of nearly 3000 points over Djokovic, this might well be a long reign at the top of the rankings.